Philadelphia Phillies Series Preview
REDS (2-1, W1) at Phillies (1-2, W1)
Mon, Apr 1 at 6:40 PM: Andrew Abbott vs Cristopher Sánchez
Tues, Apr 2 at 6:40 PM: Graham Ashcraft vs Spencer Turnbull
Wed, Apr 3 at 1:05 PM: Frankie Montas vs Zach Wheeler
Phillies Notes
The Phillies were blasted by the Braves in the first two games of the season (lost 9-3 and 12-4), but won the series finale 5-4 on Sunday.
The Phillies bullpen gave up 9 runs after Zack Wheeler left the game after throwing 6 shutout innings in Game 1
Aaron Nola gave up 12 hits and 7 ER in 4.1 IP in Game 2
Phillies rallied after falling behind 3-1 on Sunday to win the series finale
Bryce Harper did not play in the series finale vs the Phillies after he tumbled headfirst into the dugout going for a ball on Saturday (video). Phillies manager Rob Thompson said that he is fine and that was just a day off. Harper was also limited this spring due to back issues.
Now retired Philadelphia Eagles legend and former Cincinnati Bearcat football star Jason Kelce threw out the first pitch at the game on Saturday vs the Braves
The Phillies are coming off a 90-72 season where they lost in the NLCS in 7 games to the Diamondbacks as a wild-card team
Phillies defeated the Marlins (2-0) in the wild card round and the Braves (3-1)
The Phillies lost in the World Series in 2022. They had gone 10 straight seasons without making the postseason prior.
The Phillies saw their largest attendance in 2023 (3.1M) since 2012 (3.6M)
The Phillies window is NOW, and that was a common theme in discussions during Spring Training. “Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Ranger Suárez … they’re only guaranteed to play together for the next two years.”
PECOTA currently has the Phillies projected to finish the season 82-80 and gives them a 39% chance of reaching the postseason (2.4% chance of winning the NL East)
Phillies farm system ranked #22 in latest MLB Pipeline update
Prospects in MLB Pipeline Top 100:
#26 - RHP Andrew Painter (AA)
#47 - RHP Mick Abel (AAA)
#58 - 3B/SS Aidan Miller (A-)
#74 - OF Justin Crawford (A+)
Phillies Off-Season Recap (from MLB dot com)
Key additions: LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Michael Rucker, RHP Max Castillo
Key departures: 1B Rhys Hoskins, RHP Craig Kimbrel
Offseason focus: The Phillies prioritized re-signing Aaron Nola, and they did. He signed a seven-year, $172 million contract in November. They wanted Nola back because they had arguably baseball’s best rotation in 2023, posting a MLB-best 17.7 fWAR. The Phils took a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto in December, but he accepted a $325 million deal from the Dodgers. Other than that, the Phillies have been focused on building depth in the bullpen and rotation, albeit with players who are not expected to make the 26-man roster, although they are interested in free agent Jordan Montgomery on a short-term deal.
Biggest question: The Phillies fell short of a World Series title in each of the last two seasons, but they have decided to run it back with mostly the same 26-man roster. Can it work, even if they don’t make any more additions before Opening Day?
Phillies Injuries
PLAYER POS UPDATED INJURY INJURY STATUS
Luis Ortiz RP Sun, Mar 31 Ankle Expected out until at least Apr 15
Michael Rucker RP Thu, Mar 28 Hand Expected out until at least Apr 9
Orion Kerkering RP Thu, Mar 28 Forearm Expected out until at least Apr 9
Rafael Marchan C Thu, Mar 28 Back Expected out until at least Apr 5
Taijuan Walker SP Thu, Mar 28 Shoulder Expected out until at least May 3
Dylan Covey RP Thu, Mar 28 Shoulder Expected out until at least Apr 12
Reds Notes
The Reds lead MLB in SLG (.591) and OPS (.977)
Reds SP have a 2.87 ERA through the first 3 games of the season
Will Benson is currently tied for MLB lead with 3 doubles
Only three players in MLB (Betts, Gurriel, Teoscar Hernandez) have more home runs than Nick Martini (2)
Only two players in MLB (Betts, Gurriel) have more RBI than Nick Martini (7)
Nick Martini leads MLB in SLG (1.375) and OPS (1.931)
Jake Fraley was teammates at LSU in 2014 with Aaron Nola and Alex Bregman
Reds vs Phillies history
Reds went 3-4 vs the Phillies in 2023
All 7 games were played before April 16th last season
Final two games last season were wild: Reds won 13-0, then lost 14-3
Reds went just 1-6 vs the Phillies in 2022
Reds are 21-43 all-time at Citizens Banks Park (opened in 2004)
Reds last series win in Philly came in 2021
Reds are 1114-960 all-time vs the Phillies (highest win percentage all-time against any team they have played more than 250 times)
Payroll
-Reds 24th at $101.6 mil
-Phillies 4th at $245.0 mil
Phillies Roster Breakdown
Homegrown – 10
Free Agent – 12
Trade – 14
Waivers – 3
Reds vs Phillies
Phillies Projected Lineup vs RHP
2023 numbers
DH - Kyle Schwarber (L)
.197/.343/.474, 47 HR, 104 RBI, 119 wRC+
Schwarber stole third base on Saturday vs Max Fried (video) as part of a double steal with Harper behind him. He did not steal a base the entire 2023 season, and it was his first stolen base since Game 1 of the 2022 World Series.
Schwarber’s 11 leadoff home runs in 2023 were second behind MVP-runner up Mookie Betts’ 12 for the best in baseball.
Schwarber’s 215 strikeouts in 2023 were the most in the league and set a new franchise record for the most in a single season, surpassing the previous record of 200 set by Schwarber in 2022. It was the fifth most punchouts in a single season in history from any player, just 8 behind the MLB record of 223 set by Mark Reynolds in 2009.
Schwarber’s 2023 batting average of .197 was the worst mark among all 134 MLB hitters who qualified for the batting title. He went from bad to unplayable in the field, as Schwarber’s -21 defensive runs saved, -20.4 defensive WAR, and -19 outs above average were the worst among all position players with at least 100 games played in the field.
Schwarber hit jut .132 with a .408 OPS and just 1 extra-base hit (double) in 38 AB in Spring Training this season
SS - Trea Turner (R)
.266/.320/.459, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 30 SB, 108 wRC+
Drafted by the Pirates in the 20th round in 2011, but he chose to accept a baseball scholarship to NC State where he majored in chemical engineering
Developed late physically, always the smallest kid growing up
90 stolen bases since the start of 2021 (2nd most in MLB behind Ronald Acuna - 120)
Turner finished 2023 strong after a rough first 4 months of his 11 year / $300M contract:
March-July: .242/.296/.378, 80 wRC+
August-September: .317/.371/.629, 165 wRC+
Hit .347/.400/.633 with 3 HR in the postseason
1B - Bryce Harper (L)
.293/.401/.499, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, 142 wRC+
Hit .286 with 5 HR and 1.098 OPS in the 2023 postseason. He walked 13 times in 11 games.
Harper hit just .179 with a .508 OPS and just 1 extra-base hit (double) in 28 AB in Spring Training. Harper has been dealing with back tightness, which caused him to miss over a week of games in the middle of camp. Good article today in the Philadelphia Inquirer about how Harper should get more days off this season to protect himself (link)
C - JT Realmuto (R)
.252/.310/.452, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 16 SB, 102 wRC+
three-sport standout at Albert High School in Midwest City, Oklahoma (QB)
2B - Bryston Stott (L)
.280/.329/.419, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 31 SB, 101 wRC+
Father played football at UNLV in 1988-91
Top 50 prospect in MLB when he debuted in 2022
Started the 2024 season 4-9 (.444) with a double
3B - Alec Bohm (R)
.274/.327/.437, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 4 SB, 105 wRC+
Not drafted out of high school, became star at Wichita State, Phillies drafted him #3 overall in 2018
#31 ranked overall prospect when he debuted in 2020
Bohm hit .303 with a .929 OPS in 155 AB vs LHP in 2023
RF - Nick Castellanos (R)
.272/.311/.476, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 11 SB, 109 wRC+
Hit 5 home runs over a 3-game span in the postseason last season (NLDS G3/G4 and NLCS G1), but went 0 for 23 to end the NLCS and the Phillies postseason
Castellanos hit just .119 with a .402 OPS in 42 AB in Spring Training
Castellanos crushed LHP last season hitting .324 with a .930 OPS in 173 AB
LF - Brandon Marsh (L)
.277/.372/.458, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, 125 wRC+
Traded from Angels in August 2022
Angels #1 prospect in 2020
CF - Johan Rojas (R)
.302/.342/.430, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 14 SB, 109 wRC+
Bench
C – Garrett Stubbs (L)
.204/.274/.283, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, 54 wRC+
Stubbs has yet to appear in a game in 2024
INF - Edmundo Sosa (R)
.251/.293/.427, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, 92 wRC+
Traded from Cardinals in July 2022
Hit .267 with 6 HR and .792 OPS vs LHP in 2023
NF/OF Whit Merrifield (R)
.272/.318/.382, 11 HR, 67 RBI, 26 SB, 93 wRC+
Started the season 1-7 (.143)
Hit .405 with 2 HR and 1.143 OPS in 42 AB in Spring Training with the Phillies this season
Better career numbers vs LHP, but last season only hit .259 with a .692 OPS vs LHP
OF - Cristian Pache (R)
.238/.319/.417, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, 99 wRC+
Acquired from A’s on March 2023
Braves overall top prospect as recently at 2021
Braves traded Pache to A’s as part of Matt Olson deal in March 2022
Hit .314 with a .924 OPS in 51 AB vs LHP in 2023
Starting Pitching Matchups
2023 numbers
MONDAY - Phillies - LHP Cristopher Sanchez
3-5, 3.44 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
Signed by the Rays in 2014 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic
A roster crunch in Tampa Bay has led to an opportunity with the Phillies.. The prospect-rich Rays added five players to their 40-man roster in November but were unable to find room for Sanchez. He seemed to be a sure bet to go in the Rule 5 draft until the Phillies grabbed him in a trade on Nov. 20 and put him on their 40-man roster.
Sanchez was used mostly as a reliever and spot starter when he made his MLB debut in 2021 and into 2022. He was only ranked as the Phillies #26 prospect the last time he was on a prospect ranking list in 2022.
In the 2023 Season, the Phils were hopeful top prospect Andrew Painter would fill the fifth starter spot this season. But his arm injuries left a void that Sanchez was eventually able to fill. The left-hander came out of nowhere to post a 3.48 ERA in 18 starts, showing elite control and fanning nearly one batter per inning.
Sanchez ranked in the 97th percentile in chase rate, 98th percentile in BB% and 95th percentile in ground ball% in 2023
Sánchez relies on 3 pitches. 92 MPH Sinker (46.2%), 82 MPH Changeup (32.7%) and 83 MPH Slider (21.1%)
Sanchez had a 8.59 ERA in 3 starts in spring training 2024 (7.1 IP, 15 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K)
1 career start vs the Reds (2022): 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 0 BB, 7 K
Only Reds to have faced Sanchez:
Fairchild 1-3, HR
Candelario 1-3
India 1-3
MONDAY - Reds - LHP Andrew Abbott
8-6, 3.87 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9
Abbott has never faced the Phillies or any active player
Abbott had a 7.88 ERA in 3 starts this spring (8.0 IP, 14 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K)
TUESDAY - Phillies - RHP Spencer Turnbull
1-4, 7.26 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 1.68 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
Turnbull looked like a pitcher on the rise with the Tigers in 2021 when he threw a no-hitter and had a 2.88 ERA over 7 starts, but then he needed Tommy John Surgery. He only pitched in a total of 13 games between AAA and MLB in 2023, but struggled at both levels posting a 7.26 ERA in 7 MLB starts and 6.86 ERA in 6 starts at AAA.
The Phillies signed Turnbull to a one-year deal worth $2 million which includes performance bonuses this off-season after he elected free agency from the Tigers.
Todd Zolecki after Phillies were rained out on Opening Day: The Phillies planned to have Zack Wheeler pitch on normal rest on Tuesday, but yesterday's rainout prevents that. It'll be Spencer Turnbull on Tuesday vs. Reds. Wheeler will pitch Wednesday. Turnbull probably limited to five innings/80-85 pitches.
Turnbull allowed just 2 runs over 8.0 IP this spring (2.25 ERA) with 2 BB and 12 K.
Turnbull’s only 2 career starts against the Reds came in 2020 and he had a 2.45 ERA in those starts
Santiago Espinal is 0-2 vs Turnbull, and he is the only active Red to have faced him
TUESDAY - Reds - RHP Graham Ashcraft
7-9, 4.76 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9
Ashcraft threw 6 shutout innings vs the Phillies at GABP last season (4 H, 4 BB, 4K). That was his only career game against the Phillies and he has never pitched at Citizens Bank Park.
Phillies vs Ashcraft:
Bohm 1-1, 2 BB
Castellanos 0-3
Schwarber 0-3
Sosa 2-2
Stott 1-3, 2B
Marsh 0-2
Turner 0-2
Ashcraft had a 5.52 ERA in 4 starts in Spring Training and struggled with his command walking 8 batters in 14.2 IP (12 strikeouts)
WEDNESDAY - Phillies - RHP Zach Wheeler
13-6, 3.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Opening Day vs Braves: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K (bullpen blew the game)
Wheeler went 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 4 starts in the 2023 postseason
Surprisingly only been an all-star once in his career : 2022
Finished 6th in the 2023 Cy Young voting and won his first Gold Glove last season
Previously finished 2nd in 2021 and 12th in 2020
Grew up in Atlanta and was a staunch Braves fan because of his father
High School Player of the Year for Georgia in 2009
#6 overall draft pick in 2009 by the Giants (Strasburg #1, Mike Minor #7, Mike Leake #8)
Traded to the Mets at the 2011 deadline for Carlos Beltran
Signed 5-year, $118 mil deal with Phillies in Dec 2019
Wheeler has a 3.22 career ERA in 6 starts against the Reds
Only start last season vs Reds came in Philly: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 K
Reds vs Wheeler:
Benson 1-1, BB
Candelario 3-5, 2 2B, 3 RBI
Espinal 1-6
Fraley 0-2
India 0-6
Maile 1-4
Steer 1-2, 2B
Stephenson 1-2, 2B
WEDNESDAY - Reds - RHP Frankie Montas
1.1 IP, 0 R
Montas has only faced the Phillies once in his career, and it came at Citizens Bank Park on the delayed Opening Day in 2022 when he was with the A’s: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR
Phillies vs Montas:
Castellanos 3-12, 2 2B, 1 BB, 5 K
Harper 1-3, 2B
Marsh 1-9, 1 BB, 5 K
Merrifield 8-18, 2B
Realmuto 1-3
Schwarber 1-2, HR
Stott 0-2
Turner 0-1
Bullpen
Phillies Bullpen: José Alvarado, Connor Brogdon, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Yunior Marte, Luis F. Ortiz, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm
From MLB dot com: The Phillies will once again have one of the hardest-throwing bullpens in baseball. If you’re wondering who will close, you haven’t been following Thomson too closely. He prefers to close by committee. Alvarado and Hoffman are probably the best bets to close on Opening Day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Domínguez, Soto or Strahm.
